Climate-economic research

The next shift in supply, costs or margins may already be taking shape.

Climate conditions in fields and factories are already shaping production and operating performance over the months ahead. Swanstant forecasts crop outcomes, models industrial operating performance and investigates what these changes mean for your exposure.

We apply our proprietary models to each client’s question through dedicated research partnerships, with exclusive use of the agreed application and outputs for a defined period.

See the analysis in practice
From physical conditions to economic implications
FieldCrop outcomes FactoryIndustrial operating performance
LedgerSupply, costs and margins
 Schematic framework. Explore the analysis.
Who we work with

A change on the ground is not yet a market conclusion.

A smaller harvest may tighten supply or be absorbed by stocks and alternative origins. Heat stress may change operating efficiency even when output holds steady. Purchasing cover, contracts, demand and pricing shape when those effects reach costs and reported margins.

Swanstant connects the physical outlook with these economic mechanisms.

01 / Research in practice

From the crop outlook to the supply question.

Forecast issued 22 October 2026

India’s cotton production outlook

2026/27 production, millions of 480-pound bales

About this figure
Issued
22 October 2026
Weather data
Through 10 October 2026; September rainfall preliminary
Range
Contains 80% of model scenarios. It describes the model’s scenario distribution, not a guarantee of realised coverage.
Note
Holds USDA’s harvested area fixed at 11.5 million hectares. All production figures use 480-pound bales. Figures rounded independently.
Sources
Swanstant cotton brief, issued 22 October 2026. USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-676), 9 October 2026: India 2026/27 production 24.0 and imports 3.3 million bales. USDA FAS, Cotton: World Markets and Trade, October 2026: harvested area 11.5 million hectares.
Status
Issued on 22 October 2026, before the outcome is known. It is not a current market update or buying advice. It will be evaluated against the realised crop, for the central estimate and the range.
Cotton brief

A smaller crop does not settle the supply outlook.

The cotton brief places an independent India production outlook alongside regional uncertainty, official supply balances, stocks and market developments. It separates the crop estimate from the further questions a sourcing or market view needs to answer.

From the brief

At the same harvested area, our central India estimate is 1.8 million bales below USDA’s: more than half of the 3.3 million bales India is projected to import. If that lower output materialises, the adjustment could come through higher imports, lower exports, reduced mill use or stock drawdowns. Each has different implications for buyers.

Request the cotton brief How we test forecasts
02 / Our research

From field to ledger.

We model selected crop and industrial responses to climate conditions, then examine how changes in production could reach economic outcomes.

Through the season
Yield relative to normal Normal Sowing Flowering Yield formation Harvest
Range at each forecast issue Central estimate Outcome Schematic, not to scale

Illustration only. Ranges can widen as well as narrow as information changes.

Field

How is the season changing the crop outlook?

Swanstant combines observed weather with seasonal forecasts to estimate crop outcomes as the season develops. Regional estimates and uncertainty ranges help teams examine possible production outcomes before the harvest is known.

What the work provides

Crop outlooks, regional uncertainty and production estimates for the origins and decision windows that matter to your exposure, interpreted alongside the relevant supply context.

Coverage

Available for selected crops and regions. Additional coverage depends on data availability and validation.

Discuss a crop or supply origin
Different technologies, different thresholds
Operating efficiency Threshold Threshold Technology A Technology B Heat and humidity
Technology A Technology B Range Threshold Schematic, not to scale

Move across conditions to compare the two operating responses.

Factory

Where could climate conditions change operating performance?

Heat, humidity and water stress affect facilities and production technologies differently. Swanstant models selected responses to identify where performance may change and examines the implications for output, unit costs and delivery.

What the work provides

Analysis of operating responses and thresholds, with interpretation of the consequences for the facilities and decision in scope.

Coverage

Selected industrial models are available. Each application is scoped around the facilities, data and decision involved.

Discuss an industrial exposure
The timing of transmission
Relative level Physical disruption Input price Unit cost Time
Input price Unit cost Purchasing cover and inventories Schematic, not to scale

Move through time to see how purchasing cover delays the cost response.

Ledger

Which physical changes could reach your supply, costs or margins?

A production change does not translate directly into a financial result. Swanstant examines how stocks, alternative supply, purchasing cover, logistics, demand and pricing could delay, absorb or amplify its effects.

What the work provides

Case-specific research into transmission mechanisms and timing, and what they imply for an economic or company outlook.

Coverage

Case-specific transmission analysis is available. Systematic earnings and market forecasting remains in development.

Discuss an economic question
Explore how the effects travel
Analytical framework

Transmission channels

A strong climate signal need not become a strong crop or market signal. Each stage can attenuate, amplify or reshape what reaches the next.

01Climate to production
Signal filtersGeography, season and event strength
Crop responseGrowth stage, physiology, water and irrigation
02Production to economy
Supply buffers & accessStocks, alternative origins, substitution, specification, logistics and policy
Market balanceAvailable supply, demand and purchasing commitments

Select a stage to explore

Compounding shocksShared constraints can turn concurrent shocks into compounding stress. Labour productivity, water allocation and energy infrastructure both transmit and amplify impacts.
01Concurrent shocks
02Physical transmission
03Shared constraints & amplifiers
04Economic & financial outcomes

Field and Factory model selected crop and industrial effects. Our research examines logistics, shared constraints and their transmission into economic and financial outcomes.

Select a stage to explore

Modelled in Field and Factory Examined in our research
Source: Swanstant analytical frameworks. Conceptual links; arrows do not encode effect sizes.
03 / Your decisions

Which assumption do you need to test?

The useful question is not simply whether climate affects production. It is whether the developing physical outlook matters to your decision.

Investment teams

Could the physical outlook challenge your investment case?

Examine where production or operating performance could diverge from expectations, and what would need to happen for that difference to reach costs and margins.

Commodity producers, buyers and traders

How does the developing crop outlook compare with prevailing supply expectations?

Assess production uncertainty alongside stocks, trade constraints and demand over the periods when you need to buy, sell or commit volume.

Sourcing and operations

Could conditions change before your next volume commitment or price-fixing window?

Examine potential pressure on availability, input costs, operating capacity and delivery, including the flexibility offered by inventories and alternative sources.

Insurers and reinsurers

Where could changing conditions alter an exposure before renewal?

Investigate operational strain, business interruption, critical-supplier dependencies and concentrations that warrant closer examination.

Financial and public institutions

Could the production outlook change your financing or reserve planning?

Examine implications for supply availability, regional exposure and the businesses or populations in scope.

We agree what the research should add to your existing information and how its contribution will be assessed.

How we work together
04 / Working together

Dedicated research partnership.

We apply and adapt our models and research to our clients’ decisions, developing dedicated applications where needed. Each partnership combines Swanstant’s methods with the client’s priorities, existing information and operating context.

  1. Phase 0

    Define the question

    Agree the decision, research contribution, expected outputs, evaluation criteria and scope.

  2. Phase 1

    Apply, adapt and validate

    Apply the relevant models and research, adapt them where appropriate, and assess their contribution and limitations against agreed benchmarks.

  3. Phase 2

    Maintain the analysis

    For ongoing work, update the outputs, record revisions, assess forecasts against outcomes and discuss what changes in the evidence mean for the question.

Dedicated application, exclusive use

Each dedicated partnership provides exclusive client use of an agreed application and its specified outputs for a defined period. Swanstant retains and develops its underlying proprietary models. Client data and outputs are not shared with other clients. With the client’s agreement, general findings from an engagement may inform model development. The research brief defines the scope and duration of exclusivity.

Delivery can combine written research, model outputs and direct discussion, at a cadence suited to the decision.

Discuss your decision

Ongoing research subscriptions

Research subscriptions can be scoped around selected commodities, industries and economic themes. Coverage, publication schedule and availability are confirmed when we discuss the programme.

Subscription programmes provide research shared among subscribers; they do not include dedicated client applications or their exclusive outputs. Dedicated partnerships tailor applications around an individual client’s needs.

Discuss a research subscription
05 / Our approach

An earlier view needs a clear account of uncertainty.

We distinguish what the model estimates, what the economic analysis infers, and what remains uncertain.

Method in practice

Out-of-sample testing

Information available at the forecast date Season forecast and tested Schematic, not to scale

Make forecasts interpretable

We explain what each forecast estimates, its horizon and reference point, the information and assumptions behind it, and how to read its uncertainty.

Account for other drivers

Technology, seasonality, demand and longer-term trends also affect production. We account for relevant non-climate drivers to assess the relationship between climate and production in context.

Test beyond the fitting data

We test models on data excluded from their development. Seasonal forecast tests use only the information available at each forecast date.

Report calibrated prediction ranges

We report central estimates with prediction ranges. We calibrate these ranges to be as tight and useful as the evidence supports while maintaining reliable coverage.

Evaluate against outcomes

For each forecasting engagement, we agree how forecasts and revisions will be recorded, dated and evaluated against observed outcomes. Historical model tests and forecasts issued in real time are assessed separately.

06 / Publications and collaborations

Explore the evidence behind the questions.

Hyran × SwanstantOperating
Supply Chains
in an Era
of Uncertainty
Co-publication / October 2026
Publication preview
Co-publication with Hyran, supported by SHEIN October 2026

Operating Supply Chains in an Era of Uncertainty

Agility depends on how information flows and decisions are made across a supply chain. This joint study evaluates how fashion supply chains can adapt to demand volatility, climate pressure and trade disruption. Drawing on financial benchmarking, investor questions and field research, the report examines how inventory decisions, supplier relationships and operating models shape adaptability and profitability.

Read the report

Research and implementation partners

Nzatu

Local engagement for agricultural research.

Paris Good Fashion

Joint research through the Swanstant × Paris Good Fashion Observatory.

Discuss a research collaboration
07 / About Swanstant

Independent research at the intersection of climate and the economy.

Swanstant is a climate-econometric research firm based in London and operating globally. We bring together quantitative modelling, economic analysis and research communication to investigate how climate conditions affect production and transmit through the economy.

Founder

François Souchet

François founded Swanstant to bring climate-economic research into operational and financial decisions. Trained as an engineer, he spent more than a decade helping companies reduce their environmental impact, including through roles at Accenture and the Ellen MacArthur Foundation. His work now examines how climate affects economic performance, connecting production systems, business decisions and weather patterns.

Research editorial

Ian Banks

Ian leads research editorial, helping turn complex findings into clear, rigorous publications. He previously worked on climate research at McKinsey and led editorial at the Ellen MacArthur Foundation.

Independence

Our findings are independent of clients’ preferred outcomes. Swanstant holds no positions in the markets it forecasts and accepts no compensation tied to the direction of its findings.

08 / A conversation

What is taking shape behind your next decision?

Tell us the commodity, operation or economic exposure you are examining, the assumption you want to test, and the horizon that matters. We can discuss what the available research can answer and where further work would be needed.

Schedule a conversation Email your question